The Way This Unusual Season Broke the Traditional Coach of the Year Mould.

Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. However, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or just the biggest shock.

Yet the latest race is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions fading and longtime underperformers improving in unison. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the runaway choice. But this is not a typical season!

Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still