Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
